One battle I constantly fight is against human nature. It is a tough fight. Humans are "hardwired" to do certain things a certain way. Some of these things cause us significant financial harm. Until humans change certain habits, they consistently miss money making opportunities year after year and suffer huge losses to inflation. The big problem is in more
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Monday, November 27, 2006
Even after the strong market rally of the past 4 months, stocks remain cheap relative to bonds and real estate. Why?
Having written many times times about the pending retirement of 78 million American "Baby Boomers", I recently realized that I have joined a large "consensus chorus". I checked the books on my bookshelf and realized that virtually all financial books written in the past 5 years have at least one chapter on the pending "baby boom bust". The series by Harry Dent, including "The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2005-2009" has been among the many books saying that once the boomers start retiring, the world is in for a lot of hurt. Dent and others who rely on demographics to forecast the future have been forced to adjust their calls year after year. Immigration was just one of several things to throw off the forecast.
A lot of folks believe in self fulfilling forecast but markets always ultimately defeat (write for the rest.)
Posted by Jack Miller at 11/27/2006 11:44:00 AM
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Now that Quantas, the big Australian Airline, is in play as a take over target, congratulations seem to be in order. Many of you have purchased CAL at prices ranging from $7 per share to $37 per share. You have made as much as 6 times your money. Those how purchased in margin accounts and leverage up along the way have made as much as 40 times your money; from $10,000 to $400,000 in only 4 years is not bad.
Now that Jim Cramer and many others have capitulated and are now recommending airlines, it is a difficult time for us of contrarian mind set. It is our natural response to have thoughts that the big run must be almost over. The risk that CAL will get caught in a bidding war becomes more frightening.
The big move is for more
Posted by Jack Miller at 11/22/2006 11:06:00 AM
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Investors often find it hard to believe the business cycle is one secret to extrarordinary profits. Cycles seem like hocus pocus. When Jim Bridger discovered the great salt lake his story sounded like a "mountain man tall tale" so when he later discovered "Old Faithful" it was too much for many to believe. "Ha Ha, you can set your watch by when a geyser goes off"? "This has to be another one of those 'Old Jim Bridger Lies'"!
I'm here to tell you that there are regular cycles and investors should take advantage. Examples of consistent cycles are (MORE)
Posted by Jack Miller at 11/21/2006 09:12:00 AM
Thursday, November 16, 2006
CAL up 100% this year: CALjust went over the 100% mark on the year. My most aggressive margin buyers have gains of 500% on this stock this year! Today's spark was caused by an LCC bid for DAL. Investors should keep their "eyes on the ball", the speculation over who will buy whom will drive you crazy but the fact remains that CALis on track to set another all time record load factor this month. And just in case you have forgotten about my earlier e-letters, the price of fuel is coming down more.
Time is also running out (More)
Posted by Jack Miller at 11/16/2006 08:18:00 AM
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
This BULL MARKET is confounding many investors. They keep selling their stocks only to see them trade higher and higher. They wonder, what is going-on? Sooner or later, there will be a capitulation and many folks will buy back into the market.
The problem so many investors have is that they focus on the "sensational news" which is constantly drummed into their heads. They should stay anchored by studying the fundamentals. During times like these, the news media constantly picks and chooses from the worst of the worst to report as news; the market top will not occur until there is a capitulation in the news, when suddenly it becomes clear to reporters that the market is going to keep going up for a long time because of all the reasons it has been going up. In the world of business and economics there is a steady stream of economic numbers, all of which can be interpreted as bad or good for the stock market. Thus the price of any stock is determined largely by market psychology and not by actual prospects.
The hard thing for investors to fully appreciate is the fact that markets tend to go up when (MORE)
Posted by Jack Miller at 11/15/2006 01:57:00 PM
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Sometimes I feel that I am banging my head against a wall. I keep encouraging account holders to add to their accounts as fast as they can or at least through a monthly draft. The big gains made the past several months have been fun but frustrating. I would have like to have gotten more money into the accounts before the current "leg" of this Bull Market began.
This year corporations have purchased $550 Billion Dollars worth of stock. Guess who they bought it from? (Click here for more)
Posted by Jack Miller at 11/14/2006 10:04:00 AM
Thursday, November 02, 2006
My republican biases got under the skin of some of my democratic friends. Some readers think I should avoid discussing politics. The problem is that the wealth of America is largely influenced by tax policies and tax policies are determined by politics. Investors have a financial interest in the upcoming elections. I am liberal in many ways, however, unlike those who now hold the power within the democratic party, I understand that business profits are the key to high paying jobs and that the free economy, not tax and spend, is the best means of allocating profits.
Democrats are using the (send an email for further commentary)
Posted by Jack Miller at 11/02/2006 10:50:00 AM