Tuesday, May 23, 2006

HISTORY CONFIRMS BIG CAPS ARE IN

At current prices, big cap US stocks are much cheaper than bonds and bonds are much cheaper than real estate. Obviously the last sentence is the one that is subject to debate. If one estimates that big company earnings are going to decline and that rents at the beach are going to rise, then one can say real estate is cheaper than stocks. However, the US economy has clearly moved from the "recovery from recession" phase to the "business expansion" phase. During times like these, history says that big companies do well while bonds and residential real estate do less well. History also tells us that at the end of the "business expansion" phase, a tough recession normally follows.

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