Wednesday, September 14, 2005

BUILDING NEW ELECTRIC CARS!

For some years, futurist have discussed the conversion of the car from the internal combustion engine to the hydrogen fuel cell. The conversion, if it happens, is years away. However, Peter W. Huber and Mark P. Mills are on the money. This morning I finished re-reading their book, The Bottomless Well.

The book is absolutely fascinating and illuminating. I especially enjoyed learning how "new" electric cars are about to take over. The authors call the new cars silicon cars because they have so many semiconductor chips installed. I prefer new electric because the point of the car is to dramatically reduce costs through the use of electricity versus the use of gasoline; and because they are far more powerful than the "old" electric cars.

We are all familiar with hybrid cars but the new electric car is more electric than hybrid. Yes, it still uses gasoline but only for the purpose of producing electricity. It does not have a drive shaft to power the wheels. The motor in the new electric car does not drive fan belts, transmissions, water pumps, fans or hardly anything else by mechanical means.

The electric car has a high powered battery that can be plugged in for recharging. The electric car does not need its engine for trips of 5 to 7 miles. The electric car serves as a back-up or supplemental power generator; no more power outages. The electric car cuts cost but improves performance.

New technology cuts the cost of nuclear fuel dramatically and nuclear power is clean and safe. Our nation can save billions by building nuclear power plants and using them to power "new electric" cars.

This coming winter is going to be rough on those who use natural gas for heating fuel. It is going to be rough on those who must drive many miles. Today, I filled up for the first time since three days before Katrina. I drove down to the fumes and then set a new personal record when I purchased 19.6 gallons of gas for $54.86. Before Katrina I purchased 18.7 gallons for $48.23 which was a record at the time. By waiting, I did not purchase at $3.19, 3.09 or $2.85. Today the price was $2.79.

Certainly, I am one of many who have cut back on usage. Immediately after the storm, I wrote that the oil crisis is over. Prices have dropped but the correction has a long way to go.
Again, the winter is going to be tough.

However it is nice to know that the energy well truly is a bottomless well. The earth continues to grab and hang onto a little more of the suns energy every day. The United States is a carbon sink; we gain more carbons than we use. For more than 80 years, the US has been adding forests. During the years prior to 1910 our country lost 300 million acres of trees. In 1910, of the 306 million acres of cropland, 83 million acres were used to feed horses (oxen, mules, and other beast of burden).

Today we use our resources far more efficiently than in the past. If governments and environmentalist would stay out of they way, there would be even more efficiency. We would not be wasting millions growing corn for fuel or wasting tons of concrete and steel for windmills. These activities cost American tax payers and are counter productive.

In the past 20 years or so, the entire country has been taken on a tremendous detour because of arbitrary mileage regulations (CAFE). As a result, many of us drive trucks. Who knows how much further along we would be if environmentalist had not gotten in the way. The market is smarter than you or me. It is smarter than all the politicians and bureaucrats.

In the next several years, you will be surprised at the pace at which car components are converted from mechanical systems to electrical systems. The savings will be huge. Very substantial investments will be made to convert gas to electric as soon as it is clear that low cost nuclear electricity is going to be available.

This country may never need to build another oil refinery. We need to continue to drill for oil to replace depleted supplies but since most oil is used in transportation, the new electric cars will reduce the relative need for oil. The ultra clean hydrogen cell if perfected could easily replace the gasoline generator on the new electric car.

This week,Soultek quoted a European Auto Correspondent who wrote, "Record fuel costs pushed hybrid cars to centre stage at the world's biggest car show this week...", while noting that GM was "one of the seemingly few companies at the Frankfurt show not to trumpet a new hybrid offering or highlight its plans to make one."

It is particularly ironic that GM told the European autowriter that the U.S. government made a mistake by giving hybrids favored treatment, rather than setting environmental standards to let the market decide how to meet them."


Soultek.com devotes an entire website to the hybrid car. GM should join the band wagon before it pulls out of town. Hybrids are going to be the next revolution.

SENTIMENT IS VERY NEGATIVE; SENTIMENT IS NEGATIVE AT MARKET BOTTOMS; STOCKS ARE CHEAP RELATIVE TO BONDS; THE EFFECTS OF HIGH FUEL COSTS ARE SLOWING THE ECONOMY; BONDS MAY INCREASE IN VALUE IF THE ECONOMY SLOWS; STOCKS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN VALUE IN THE FACE OF STABLE OR LOWER BOND RATES; BUY THE BULL!

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